The "Art" of Weather
Art Horn, Meteorologist



Some “talking points” dealing with popular myths and misconceptions about global warming or, if you like, climate change.

“It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out.” – Carl Sagan

“Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.” – H. L. Mencken

Carbon Dioxide: The new WMD (Weapon of Mass Deception)

1. Surface temperature records from the climate research unit of the University of East Anglia show that global temperature fell from about 1875 to 1910. Temperature rose from about 1911 to 1945. Temperature fell again from about 1946 to 1976. During this period atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 9% yet there was global cooling, not warming. Temperature rose from about 1977 to 1998 as carbon dioxide levels continued to increase. The temperature peaked in the super El Nino of 1997/98. The temperature then stopped rising. During the period since 1998 atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased another 7% but there has been no warming. Half of the temperature rise in the last 160 years was during the first half of the twentieth century. This was before any significant human influence was possible due to such small man made carbon dioxide emissions prior to 1945.

2. Contrary to myth, media reports and the President, there has been no rapid warming of the earth over the last 50 years and there is no acceleration of any warming. While earth’s temperature has gone up and down over the last 160 years carbon dioxide levels have only been rising. Carbon dioxide exhibits no statistical relationship to temperature in the last 160 years. At the current rate of temperature rise since 1850 the earth’s temperature would be 0.6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2100. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an average rise of 7.0 degree Fahrenheit.

3. There are 5 major centers that compile and display global temperature data, The Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, Remote sensing systems, The University of Alabama Huntsville, The Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Nation Climatic Data Center. All of these centers show no warming since 1998. Phil Jones the director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia says “There has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995”. He also said 15 years of temperature data was need to confirm a trend. We have now seen no warming for a 15 year period of time. Alarmists are hard pressed to explain why the warming stopped. Some will say it’s just temporary and that realists "cherry pick" start and ending times to show the lack of warming. Anyone can look at the graph of temperature trend  over the last 50 years and see an obvious halt to the warming.

4. Data from ice cores drilled in Greenland use isotopes of Oxygen as a substitute for temperature. This data indicate that the earth has experience 4 ice ages in the last 450,000 years. These ice ages last 75 to100 thousand years. We currently live in the warm time between the ice ages called the interglacial. The ice core data also reveals that during this warmer time the temperature of the earth has been about 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today 3 times. The last time the earth was that warm was 3,300 years ago. The temperature of the earth has fallen about 3.75 degrees Fahrenheit since that time. This is strong evidence that today’s global temperature is not unusually warm. In fact when you look at the trend of temperature over the last 3,500 years the obvious conclusion is that it is getting colder. There are warmer periods and colder periods but the overall trend is down. There have been 17 ice ages in the last 2 million years of the earth’s history. Some day another will descend upon us and the impact will be very challenging.

5. Using surface temperature records to track global temperature change has numerous problems. The number of worldwide climate measuring sites has dropped from 6,000 in 1970 to under around 1,500 today. Two thirds of the weather stations that were closed in this period were in the country or were at higher elevation or higher latitude. Those locations had the colder night time temperatures. They are gone. What we are left with is a higher percentage of urban weather stations with warmer night time readings due to pavement, buildings and general urban sprawl. This fact alone biases the temperature record warmer as the urban areas have grown around the climate measuring stations in the last 50 years. Fifty years ago many of the climate stations were in the country but urban sprawl has grown around them. Several studies indicate that perhaps half the warming in the data base in the last 50 years is due to these land use changes. So while there has been warming, the magnitude of it has been artificially magnified. That in itself is the real man made (made up) global warming.

6. There is a strong statistical relationship between the cyclic Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and global temperature. The PDO is a 60 year cycle of warming and cooling of the Pacific Ocean. When the PDO is in the cool phase the global temperature goes down. When the PDO is in the warm phase the temperature of the earth goes up. After being in the warm phase from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s the PDO shifted back to cool around the year 2000 and the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped. This is not surprising since the oceans contain more than 1,000 times more heat than the atmosphere. What appear to be relatively small ocean temperature changes cause relatively large atmospheric changes. This shift in the PDO indicates that global temperature will likely fall for the next two decades. United States winters were rapidly warming at the rate of 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit per decade from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s. Since the PDO shift around the year 2000, United States winters are cooling at the rate of 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit per decade.

7. The total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 3.8 one hundredth of a percent. As a percentage of the atmosphere, the total increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the last 160 years is 1 one hundredth of a percent. This is a very small change. This increase has benefited agriculture, trees, flowers and other plants. They grow faster with more carbon dioxide and are more resistant to drought. If you own a real greenhouse you already know this. Estimates are that world wide crop yields have increased 15% in the last 50 years from carbon dioxide enrichment and fertilization. Trees love carbon dioxide. However, we are constantly told that we are spewing vast amounts of "carbon pollution" into the air. The use of the term "carbon pollution" is a deliberate attempt to fool the public into thinking that we are spilling black, sooty carbon into the air instead of a colorless, harmless, invisible gas. It's dirty politics, not dirty carbon dioxide.

8. A majority of The Supreme Court and many in congress think carbon dioxide is pollution. This ignorance is why the EPA is trying and push congress out of the way and regulate carbon dioxide as a “dangerous pollutant”. Many environmentalists will call carbon dioxide pollution but many of them know it is not due to its benefit to all living things, including the trees they hug. Everything that grows on earth needs it, the source is irrelevant. Remove all the carbon dioxide from the air and the earth dies. Water in the atmosphere is about 89% of the greenhouse effect. Therefore if water in the atmosphere is the major greenhouse gas then logically the EPA should regulate water vapor as a dangerous pollutant as well as carbon dioxide. As you can see regulating carbon dioxide or water vapor makes no sense since neither of them is pollution. EPA is using the fear of global warming through the use  of fossil fuels to shut down our coal industry and put hard working people out of work in already desperate economic times.

9. There is big money in carbon dioxide. There are many large organizations including but not limited to governments, Wall Street brokerage houses, environmental groups (which are really environmental corporations), large publicly traded corporations, universities, media outlets and political parties that have a strong financial interest in having everyone believe carbon dioxide is pollution. A vast carbon trading market is being generated around the world that Al Gore is deeply involved in. Once again the news media will not report this. The goal is to capitalize financially on the fear of global warming using the regulation of carbon emissions as the basis for establishing an enormous market for carbon financial products. The idea is that carbon dioxide must be made to appear dangerous to the public. If carbon dioxide is dangerous than it must be regulated to protect the public. If something is regulated than it must have an inherent value that can be traded, bought and sold as a commodity. Through this deception carbon dioxide can be converted into a product that can be bought and sold. This is literally pulling money from thin air. Some estimates are that carbon based financial products will be the largest commodity to ever hit the markets. Current trends in the carbon markets don’t seem to support this notion. Cap and Trade is legislation that would give tremendous credibility to carbon markets but it now appears to be dead. Rest assured it will come back to life as soon as the opportunity presents itself, there is far too much money to made. Remember it's really carbon dioxide markets, not carbon. Watch out for a "carbon tax" push to raise money to pay for the gigantic deficits run up by our "leaders." More taxes on an already cash poor economy is the last thing we need.

10. Ice cores show that increases in carbon dioxide in the past were the result of warmer temperature, not the cause of it. The human component of carbon dioxide that is placed into the air each year is very small, on the order of 3 percent. Half the carbon dioxide emitted into the air by human activity each year is immediately absorbed into the biosphere. Carbon dioxide is about 10 percent of the greenhouse effect. Water in the air is about 89 percent of the greenhouse effect. By volume carbon dioxide is currently at about 393 parts per million in the atmosphere. It is increasing at about 2 part per million annually. In other words carbon dioxide is increasing at a rate of .5% per year. Since human activity only adds 3 percent of the carbon dioxide that gets into the air each year the human component of the increase in carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year is 3 % of .5% or .015%. Reducing this amount by some fraction will have no effect on global temperature. In March of 2011 a climate commissioner in Australia admitted that stopping all carbon dioxide emissions around the world today would result in some unknown temperature drop hundreds of years to perhaps a thousand years in the future.

11. The variability of the sun is a major player in the earth climate fluctuations. There is a relationship between the strength of the solar wind and global temperature. Scientific evidence indicates a stronger solar wind equals a warmer earth while a weaker solar wind equals a cooler earth. Variations in cosmogenic isotopes of carbon 14 and beryllium 10 in ice cores add credence to this theory. Higher concentrations of these isotopes were found in ice cores dating to the Little Ice Age, 700 to 200 years ago meaning a weaker sun. Lower concentrations of these isotopes were found in ice cores during the medieval warm period indicating a stronger sun back 1,200 to 800 years ago. In the recent solar minima in 2008, the solar wind was weaker than at anytime NASA has been able to measure it since the 1960s. The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (AP index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field of the earth. AP index readings were started in 1932. During the last solar minimum in 2008 the AP index was usually low as a result of very few sunspots. Astronomers are suggesting that the next two solar cycles will be very weak with cycle 25 (the one after the current cycle 24) being the weaker of the two. Solar scientists are comparing the next two solar cycles, 24 and 25 to cycles 5 and 6 during what was known as the Dalton Minimum, from about 1797 to 1820. This was a very cold period in the earth’s recent history and suggests we are entering another period like it. The Pacific Ocean is in its cool phase again and will be for at least another 20 years. The sun is weak and will likely be so for the next two solar cycles. We are likely heading for cooler temperatures, not warmer. Increasing volcanic activity could add to this cooling.

12. The claim by alarmists is that global warming will melt the worlds glaciers. This will cause a dramatic and catastrophic rise of sea levels around the world flooding coastal cities and making climate refugees of millions. They point to the decrease in the amount of ice left in Arctic Ocean at the end of the summer as proof this is already underway. The downward trend in the amount of ice left in the Arctic at the end of the summer that began in the mid 1990s has ended. The ice data from polar orbiting satellites clearly shows the extent of arctic ice has stopped decreasing. Ice concentrations in the Arctic are strongly correlated to North Atlantic Ocean temperatures. The Atlantic warms and cools in a 60 year cycle. When the Atlantic is warmer ice thickness and coverage decreases in the Arctic. If the Pacific is warm at the same time as the Atlantic the loss of ice is greater. The Atlantic is still in its warm phase but the Pacific has cooled. The Arctic sea ice coverage was at a new "record low" in the fall of 2012 but this was caused not by increased melting but by strong winds from a powerful Arctic storm in August that compacted the ice. Many people use linear extrapolations of ice trends in making long range forecasts. Nature is almost never linear. Sea ice surround Antarctic continues to increase and was at a record high in 2007 and again in 2012. Tidal gauges around the world have been measuring sea levels for over 100 years. If the glaciers were melting rapidly these gauges would pick up the rise of sea level and show an acceleration over the last several decades. The current rate of sea level rise as deduced from these gauges indicates a rate of about 8 inches per century. The rate of rise is not accelerating. Recently new data from the orbiting GRACE tandem satellite mission indicate a world average sea level rise of about 8 inches per century. The IPCC says sea level will rise 7.5 to 23 inches in the next 100 years. Al Gore predicts 20 feet of rise. NASA GISS is forecasting an amazing 82 feet of sea level rise! There is no real world data to support anything other than the current rate of rise somewhere between 4 and 8 inches per century.

13. The melting of glaciers is not new. The “Little Ice Age” was from about 1400 to 1850. The coldest temperatures were in the 1600s with the coldest readings around 1700. Global temperature has been rising unevenly ever since then or for about 300 years. Glaciers have been retreating and at times, advancing unevenly during this 300 year period. Many global warming proponents point to shrinking glaciers as proof of global warming. Of the roughly 160,000 glaciers on earth only a very small percentage have been studied, less than one percent. To say that the majority of the world’s glaciers are retreating is a statement without scientific evidence. Studies of the Swiss Alps show a strong relationship with the warming and cooling of the Atlantic Ocean. The majority of the glaciers advance when the Atlantic is cooler for 30 years and the majority retreat when the Atlantic is warmer for 30 years. Currently the Atlantic is warmer. Studies indicate that in general, glaciers around the world have been retreating since the world began coming out of the Little Ice Age 300 years ago.

14. In the 1960s there were an estimated 5,000 polar bears, today there are 25,000. In a typical biased story in April of 2009 TIME magazine reported there were “only” 25,000 left. Once again this story had major input from environmental groups. Polar Bears are not drowning, they are thriving. Most school children are being taught they are drowning and starving. Another example of how the environmental corporations have infiltrated our educational system. During the last 10,000 years the earth’s temperature has been as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today three times. The Polar bears survived and multiplied. Polar bears are at an all time record high level of population.

15. Computer models say that there should be a rapid warming of the upper troposphere between 30 degrees north and south of the equator. This warming of the upper troposphere is the “fingerprint” of man made global warming. Measurements with weather balloons over the last 50 years show no warming in this region of the upper atmosphere. This real world data invalidates all computer model predictions.  In addition climate modelers admit they have almost no understanding of how clouds work. Climate modelers don’t even know if clouds provide a negative or positive feedback (cooling or warming influence) although all the models assume a positive water vapor feedback (warming). The computer models do not understand how the climate system works. The models are failing even in the short range predictions. Computer model forecasts of warming are not evidence of climate change. Evidence is concrete and does not change. Computer models can be manipulated to give desired results. Computer models are tools for research institutions and universities to continue their funding from our government, private foundations, wealthy individuals and environmental groups. Careers depend on more money to study “the problem”. Science magazine said “the fundamental understanding of the climate system, although far from complete, is stronger than ever”. Editorial in Science magazine 3/10/10. The editorial admits the understanding of the climate system is “far from complete”. Far from complete translates to almost nothing. Stronger than almost nothing is still almost nothing.

16. Data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment Satellite show outgoing longwave radiation (heat) increased by 4 watts per square meter in the 1980s and 1990s while the oceans were undergoing a cyclic warming. This data showed that there has been no increase in the amount of heat being trapped by the atmosphere. In other words the greenhouse effect has not become stronger. If is were, the satellite data would show a decrease in outgoing longwave radiation. Computer models predicted outgoing longwave radiation would decrease as oceans warmed due to a stronger greenhouse effect. All the models used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were wrong. This means the models make the wrong assumptions about how the climate system works and are useless in making any climate predictions. Amazingly, these same failing models are driving our government's energy policy.

17. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was formed in the late 1980s to prove human burning of fossil fuels causes global warming. Therefore, from the beginning, it was never a scientific organization, it had a pre-determined outcome. It was formed with a biased political agenda. Their true goal is to capture power through climate treaties partly to insure the United Nations own survival by raising money from these treaties. These treaties give the UN the legal power to redistribute the developed Nations wealth as they see fit. They will use the concept of “climate debt” owed to third world countries as justification. The debt will be redistributed, by them, for the industrialized nations sin of “polluting” the climate with carbon dioxide and therefore, using up all the available carbon space in the air. It's the UN’s goal to use global warming to extract money from developed nations and then distribute it as they see fit. The chairman of the IPCC Rajendra Pachauri (a railroad engineer) announced “We’re at a stage where the warming is happening at a much faster rate.” Apparently he does not look at real world data. It has been revealed that Pachauri is heavily invested in companies that will financially benefit from the findings of the IPCC. This is a blatant conflict of interest and he should step down or be removed from his position as chairman of the IPCC. Ottmar Edenhofer is a United Nations IPCC official. On November the 16th 2010 he made this rather remarkable, if not honest, statement. “First of all, developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community. But one must say clearly that we (the UN IPCC) redistribute, de facto, the world’s wealth by climate policy. Obviously the owners of coal and oil will not be enthusiastic about this. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore.” Many are not happy he made this statement in Der Spiegel magazine but it certainly shed a bright beam of truth on the dark intentions of the UN and the IPCC. Any talk of a direct tax on Americans from the United Nations should be rejected without debate.

18. Large environmental groups, political “leaders” and eco-activists believe the climate system is so simple that it behaves like a room in your house. Simply turn down the thermostat (reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere) and we can regulate the world temperature. People who think this way are far more dangerous than any global warming because some of these people are in power. The environmental movement has worked to change the public view of global warming to “climate change”. This effort is due to the fact that the climate is not cooperating with the forecasts of warming. The goal is to use the term “climate change” to cover the total range of weather. In this way any weather event that takes place can be explained in the context of climate change. In other words if you forecast everything you can’t be wrong. If a TV meteorologist used this technique he or she would be fired. The Governor of New York and the Mayor of New York City think that hurricane Sandy was the result of climate change. Mayor Bloomberg threw his support to President Obama in the last election because of his stand on climate change. Does the Mayor of New York believe that President Obama can change the weather? apparently so.

19. Hurricane Sandy was not the result of climate change. There have been hundreds of hurricanes that have found their way to the same place in the ocean that Sandy did. The vast majority of them go out to sea. Sandy was captured by a commonly occurring wind pattern known as a negatively tilted trough. The only difference this time was that there was a hurricane in place to be swept up into the Middle Atlantic Region. There is no connection to climate change. The same thing happened when carbon dioxide levels were far below today's readings. In late September of 1938 the same wind pattern captured a much stronger category 4 hurricane and drove it into New England with far greater devastating effects. Back then carbon dioxide levels were at 309 parts per million, far below today's 393 parts per million. Hurricane Sandy was not a "Super Storm". That term was invented by the news media. They liked the sound of "Super Storm". Actually, Sandy had a hurricane wind field no larger than many hurricanes and smaller than many. There was a large high pressure area to the northeast of the storm that expanded the area of tropical storm force winds. That is why the storm was so large in area. There were no sustained hurricane force winds reported anywhere along the New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island or Massachusetts coast, none. There were hurricane force gusts but no sustained hurricane force winds. The angle at which the hurricane hit the coast, the large area of tropical storm force winds and the fact the storm hit at the full moon high tide caused the destruction, not because Sandy was a super storm, it was only a category 1 storm on a scale of 1 to 5.

20. Al Gore. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. His message of fearing global warming has reached the third world. The nations of the third world are now demanding “climate reparations” for damage the western world has inflicted on the climate system over the last 160 years. They now say we owe them “climate Debt” because we have used up all the carbon space in the air. This is not promoting peace, it is causing more tension and anger in the developing countries towards the west. Gore’s “peace prize” is having the opposite effect. As for Gore’s financial investments in “green companies” I say “beware of the prophet seeking profits”. The urge to save the world is always a cover for the need to rule it.

21. The “Climategate” emails prove that there is at best blind ambition among some of the worlds leading climate scientists and at worst criminal activity. The reaction of much of the mainstream media in the United States has proved to be very revealing. They either don’t report the story or they defend the actions of the climate scientists. Some of these leading scientists were caught intimidating scientific journals to keep skeptics from publishing in those journals. One of the leading scientists then claimed skeptics had no credibility because they did not publish in the very same science journals. The emails also reveal that these scientists have deleted data or refused freedom of information requests and have deleted emails relevant to those requests, a criminal offence. NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies has also been stonewalling freedom of information efforts. It is clear from the emails that a small but powerful group of leading climate scientists is using their lofty positions to pervert the science of climate change. There is a large body of evidence that NOAA/NASA has been "adjusting" the United States climate data. These adjustments make the past cooler and the more recent temperature warmer. This accentuates and even creates an upward trend of temperature and makes any modest warming look more alarming. The Climate Research Unit in England has adapted this technique as well. This is a good example of “man made” global warming. If this “cooking the books” technique was used in a public corporation the CEO and the board of directors would be in jail.

22. "CO2 for different people has different attractions. After all, what is it? - it’s not a pollutant, it’s a product of every living creature’s breathing, it’s the product of all plant respiration, it is essential for plant life and photosynthesis, it’s a product of all industrial burning, it’s a product of driving – I mean, if you ever wanted a leverage point to control everything from exhalation to driving, this would be a dream. So it has a kind of fundamental attractiveness to bureaucratic mentality." - Richard S. Lindzen, Ph.D. Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT

Partial list of References:

A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-treering proxies. (Energy and Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 1049-1058, December 2007) Craig Loehle.

A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions. (International Journal of Climatology, Volume 28, Issue 13, pp. 1693-1701, December 2007) David Douglass, John Christy, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred Singer.

Altitude dependence of atmospheric temperature trends: Climate models versus observation (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 31, Issue 13 July 2004) David Douglass, Benjamin D. Pearson, S. Fred singer.

Are there connections between the Earth’s magnetic field and climate? (Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 253, Issues 3-4, pp. 328-339, January 2007) Vincent Courtillot, Yves Gallet, Jean-Louis Le Mouel, Frederic Fluteau, Agnes Genevey.

Climate Change Re-examined (Journal of Scientific Exploration, Volume 21, Number 4, pp. 723-749, 2007) Joel M. Kauffma

Climate outlook to 2030 (Energy and Environment, Volume 18, Number 5, pp. 615-619, September 2007) David Archibald.

Differential trends in tropical sea surface and atmospheric temperatures since 1979 (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Number 1, pp. 183-186, January 2001) John R. Christy, D.E. Parker, S. J. Brown, I. Macadam, M. Stendel, W.B. Norris.

Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (Climate research, Volume 13, Number 2, pp. 149-164, October 1999) Arthur B. Robinson, Zachary W. Robinson, Willie H. Soon, Sallie Baliunas.

How dry is the tropical free atmosphere? Implications for global warming theory (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Volume 78, Issue 6, pp. 1097-1106, June 1997) Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell.

Limits on CO2 climate forcing from recent temperature data of earth (Energy and Environment, Volume 20, numbers1-2, pp. 177-189, January 2009) David H. Douglass, John H. Christy.

Nature of observed temperature changes across the United States during the 20th century (Climate Research, volume 17, number 1, pp. 45-53, July 2001) Paul Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, Robert E. Davis)

On the determination of climate Feedbacks from ERBE data (Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, issue 16, August 2009) Richard S. Lindzen, Yong-Sang Choi.

Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years (Climate Research, volume 23, number 2, pp. 89-110, January 2003) Willie H. Soon, Sallie L. Baliunas.

Trends in middle and upper level tropospheric humidity from NCEP reanalysis data (Theoretical and Applied Climatology, volume 98, numbers 3-4, pp. 351-359, February 2009) Garth Paltridge, Albert Arking, Michael Pook.

Does the earth have an adaptive infrared iris? (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, volume 82, issue 3, pp. 417-432, March 2001) Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, Arthur Y. Hou.

Hockey sticks, principal components and spurious significance (Geophysical Research Letters, volume 32, issue 3, February 2005) Stephen McIntyre, Ross McKitrick.

Global warming and sea level rise (Energy and Environment, volume 20, number 7, pp. 1067-1074, 2009) Madhav L. Khandekar.

Variations of cosmic ray flux and global cloud coverage. A missing link in solar-climate relationships (Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, volume 59, number 11, pp. 1225-1232, July 1997) Henrik Svensmark, Eigil Friis-Christensen.



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